Investment Techniques
Information about Gorilla Trades and other investment techniques
Please read disclaimer at bottom of page.
My Approach
(will be updated soon)
GorillaTrades
GorillaTrades’ emphasizes the need to build up a diversified portfolio of stocks. They don’t try to chase 40% gains per day nor do they make any such claims on the site. I do have a GorillaTrades specific OpenOffice Calc spreadsheet. OpenOffice is a free download.
OpenOffice 1.0 specific spreadsheet: Download (The extension of the file should be just .sxc. If it has .zip, just remove that part and the spreadsheet should work fine. I don’t know why it does this.)
OpenOffice 2.0 specific spreadsheet: Download
Instructions are below:
It should be pretty self-explanatory. Enter company name, symbol, # of shares, confirm day, trigger price, buy day, buy price, and then the stop loss and targets and everything else is calculated automatically. The stocks current price is updated from Yahoo Finance via a macro (it refreshes only when the spreadsheet is reloaded). The upper “green” section is for the current portfolio, while the “red” bottom section is for stocks that have sold. There is a section to indicate the price you sold 75% of the stock at (as recommended to do at the first target), and a spot to indicate at what price the remaining 25% sold at. Make sure to also indicate the total number of trades. For example, I would put “1″ for the selling at the first target and then change that to “2″ only when I sell the remaining 25%. This allows the program to correctly keep track of commissions. Should you get out of a stock all at once then you just put the 75% and 25% sell prices equal and indicate only “1″ trade. What I’ve been doing is keeping the top section up-to-date as to the suggested targets and then should I sell, I just copy down whatever info I need and then delete the entry on top as soon as I am 100% out of the stock. The spreadsheet is protected so that the cell formulas are not accidentally overwritten, but you can easily unprotect it (I left the password blank).
I take no responsibility with how this spreadsheet is used.
I read on a blog somewhere that GorillaTrades is solely based on technical analysis. This is true in the sense that it doesn’t take into account any news (until that news is reflected in the charts). However, before purchasing a confirmed stock I always check it out at VectorVest (which gives a buy/hold/sell based on valuation). Usually, the GorillaTrades picks are buy recommendations. They are mostly stocks that are not just technically posed to increase but also are undervalued and have a history of positive earnings/dividend growth. I highly recommend VectorVest. It gives some very good information. I feel that combining the GorillaTrades technical approach and price targets with the VectorVest valuation approach has yielded and should yield great results.
You can always get a free 30-day trial and see if it works for you. Or, go here http://www.gorillatrades.com/popup.html. There you can get a copy of the Gorilla’s latest email, which includes any new potential GorillaPicks or GorillaShorts for the next session. This is the exact same email that I get, but you can only have access to the current GorillaTrades portfolio, which includes the price targets and stop price, by getting the free trial.
Links
Investment sites recommended in the comments below:
BreakoutWatch.com
Validea.com
VectorVest
AnotherWinningTrade.com
Decision Point
The Growth Stock Report
David’s “How I use DecisionPoint” page (no longer active)
Blogs that discuss Gorilla Trades: Wealth Junkie >> Gorilla Trades Page
Disclaimers
GorillaTrades is a registered trademark of GorillaTrades, Inc. All other trademarks or registered trademarks are property of their respected owners. My comments below fall within my rights of nominative fair use; and I am exercising my right to freedom of speech to voice these comments. I am not publishing copyrighted data nor profiting from this blog page. I have no affiliation to GorillaTrades or to any of the other investment sites mentioned.
I am not a financial analyst. I just someone interested in investing. I will not be responsible for how this information may be used.
June 18th, 2005 14:07
I am a new investor using Gorilla Trades and have been following their advice almost literally. Last month I got +5% return on my investment which would extrapolate to +60% annually. Am I wrong or does this seem to good to be true?
Before I throw my entire nest egg at this system I would like to know if the Gorilla Trade is for real and if there are other similar investment consultants out there.
Thank you.
Kim
June 18th, 2005 16:15
I’m by no means an expert, but I too have been following their advice and have been very pleased. I would not put your entire nest egg into one thing…diversify into stocks, bonds, IRAs, etc. I’m using the GorillaTrades system to try and build my own “nest egg.” I have had a few losses but the winners have outdone the losses. Let me know if you have any more questions.
June 20th, 2005 16:55
I’ve been very pleased with GorillaTrades, they seem to really have the market cornered with their systematic approach. I logged 32% last year, never lost more than about 5% on a pick, and when their picks are good, just let em soar. They just came out with a multimedia tutorial on their system that would have been nice to have had when I first got started.
June 20th, 2005 17:50
(Andy) Regarding your statement, “…and when their picks are good, just let em soar.”. Do you sell off 75% as recommended and what is your exit strategy? Anyone’s response will be appreciated.
I also noticed your annual rate was 32%. I have only been in for 1.5 months and if the trend holds my annual rate will be +50%. Can anyone tell me what is an average return using the Gorilla System?
June 20th, 2005 20:59
You guys seem to have very positive experience with this system. I have yet to read a bad experience yet. However, I have a question.
They have almost 40 stocks in thier portfolio, which ofcourse is way too many for individual investor like myself. so, how do you decide what to buy among thier confirmed stocks and how many stocks do you have at any given time. I am only talking about the ones this system confirms.
June 21st, 2005 13:28
Go to http://www.gorillatrades.com and review the on-line system tutorial. They recommend not to invest more than 5%-10% of your capital into anyone stock. The tutorial will also provide some guidance in picking your stocks based on risk rating. I have been looking for a system that meets my lifestyle and philosophy. Working a normal job 8 hours per day did not leave adequate time to keep up with the market. So I pay about $2 per day for the research and all-in-all not a bad trade-off.
June 21st, 2005 16:49
I’m in my free trial period. I’m tracking some picks but haven’t bought any as yet. I’d prefer to start small, but I also want to recoup my subscription cost and then some. What starting capital would be too small to be worthwhile?
June 21st, 2005 18:45
Assumtions on Captial Investment:
Fix Cost (FC): 700 = 500 (Annual Gorilla fee) + 200 (10 full trades)
Nominal Annual Rate: 30%
Investment (PV): 10,000; 25000; 50000
Held One Year (FV): 13449; 33622, 67244
Profit (FV-PV-FC): 2749, 7922, 16544
Your numbers will vary some and by doing some extrapolation you should be able to get some approximation as to starting capital versus expectations.
June 22nd, 2005 09:44
RIP OFF? SCAM? YOU BE THE JUDGE!
Well, I have read comments and am in the trial myself. 30 days is not enough time to test a system for the huge dollar cost of subscription because the market could just be in a upswing giving us a false sense of the system.
However, I submit the following for your consideration. I am wondering why the TRIGGER price used to track the % gain on their spreadsheet is the OPENING PRICE of the day instead of the closing price. You get an email that says which stocks have trigger THAT DAY. You don’t know that until that evening so the earliest you can buy the stock is the morning following the nightly email. Okay, because of that I can understand if they used the closing price of that day. But to use the opening price seems ridiculous. That is like me telling you to buy a stock tomorrow and using as a basis of my “success” the opening price of yesterday. I know the stock went up so I start off with a positive gain before you even can purchase. Some of these are whopping.
Also, how come we can’t see the past recommendations that have closed for loses or gains?
Something is fishy. Sent these questions to them and waiting upon response.
I will not subscribe.
June 22nd, 2005 14:49
Perhaps this is new…
I visited the website and clicked the link for a sample email. Shortly after I received the email, I received another email giving me the opportunity to subscribe on a monthly basis, and also get the 30 day trial. The monthly fee, IIRC, was $60 per mo. This offer is not available from the webpage.
Bruce, I share your frustration with this kind of accounting. There are so many stock picking services that play this same game. My opinion from only briefly studying their pick list, is that gorillatrades holds their stocks commonly for longer than a month, so this kind of accounting might have less of a falsely positive impact than you might think.
However, certainly it would be better if they locked it the buy price at the moment that the stock confirms.
June 23rd, 2005 18:05
Bruce, I have not yet subscribed to this service yet. I am doing little study before I jump the gun. But I beleive, what Gorilla recommends is not to buy at trigger price, but buy after it confirms within 5 days. If it does not confirm within 5 days that trigger autmatically expires.
Now, this question to you all folks. Please help me understands this. say the stock got confirmed today by daily mail. do you buy this the next day, if so do you buy at the opening price ? How does that exactly work.
June 23rd, 2005 19:00
rxdude,
Actually, there is a stage BEFORE the trigger stage. It is called the “Potential Buy” stage. At this stage the “Trigger Price” is set. The stock has 5 days to trigger before it is removed as a potential trigger. Once a stock is triggered, it can remain unconfirmed until it is stopped out or hits both price targets.
There is quite a bit of discretion involved in the actual buys. There is no actual recommendation that I have read that you buy the stock on the next session. In fact, the lit seems to encourage you to study all the confirmed picks and buy only the strongest looking stocks. You are told strictly to not buy confirmations that gap up more than 5% on the opening day. The lit also advises that you may consider “averaging up” on strong confirmed picks. It also advised that you refrain from “averaging down” stocks that are lagging.
Hope this helps.
June 24th, 2005 16:42
Scott is correct on the looseness of the buy price. Gorilla says wait for a dip TOWARD the target price after confirmation but how much is a dip depends upon you. However, please note that if it doesn’t dip, then Gorilla still claims at 30% return while you were never in the stock.
The main point is that the returns are skewed terribly (in my opinion) based on my 30 day trial by Gorilla posting their comparison price after they know the stock rose on that day building in a heck of a cushion. The bottom line is users of this service can not buy at the trigger price unless the stock falls to it. All their claims of 52 of 60 stocks have positive returns are based on this false starting price.
I have written Gorilla twice to inquire as to how they determine their trigger price and have not received a reply. This worries me. At least MOTLEY FOOL (I do subscribe) uses the same closing price on the day they recommend and they take their lumps like the rest of us. To me that’s fair. On the other hand the FOOL’S holding period is 3-5 years which may be too long for some of us.
June 25th, 2005 05:44
Please take a look at this one, which I bought and lost couple of points in just 2 days. AVID, was confirmed on June 16th at 58.44 (incidently opening price, as Bruce pointed out). Ofcourse e-mail comes out at the closing of the day. Next day, it gapped up slightly, and opened at 59.62, (less than 5%), so I bought it at about 59.00. And look what has happened to it. Interestingly, if you look at, I beleive last weekend’s e-mail, Gorilla claimed to have gained 3%. Now that does not make sense at all. I think this is a very good example of what Bruce is trying to make.
I really would like to subscribe, but if they are not being honest aoubt thier picks, then they are like thousands of other sites that claims to reach the sky.
I would aprciate your take on this
June 25th, 2005 07:50
RXDUDE is right on. I also bought AVID and lost (and it is a prime example of their illogical pricing for their track record). I know that there is no system that is right all the time BUT the track record must be accurate otherwise it is deceptive and, as Rxdude points out, just like any of the 1000s of sites claiming to double your money.
June 25th, 2005 11:17
I took a loss on AVID also. I just opened the website to take a look at what GorillaTrades is claiming on this trade. Here it is:
AVID SOLD: 6/23. PROFIT: -8.5%
I don’t see where GT is claiming a gain on this one. They also seem to be correctly claiming losses on MEE and RAI, which stopped out Friday.
Hope this helps.
June 26th, 2005 14:18
Everyone appears to be missing the point. This isn’t about how Gorilla reports PROFIT on a given stock. It’s about fear. Some of you would like Gorilla to make all your trading decisions and you make all the profit. What they do is offer a service of making stock picks that have the technical potential to achieve the types of gains that attracted all of you in the first place. I took their advice on a free trial and made money with Urban Outfitters. Real success in the market requires diligent STUDY and WORK everyday. If you think the subscription is too high, don’t subscribe. If the price of the subscription is going to keep you from investing, don’t subscribe. That money would be better spent on Investor’s Business Daily. Reading IBD will actually teach you something about investing. Read books by people like William O’Neil. Stay away from people like Jim Cramer and the other talking heads. They are entertaining but tips are for suckers.
All of you need to realize that, ultimately, it is your study and work that will allow you to profit. Gorilla can help provide potential stocks for purchase. They cannot do the work. That is up to you. I’ll make my own way. I won’t blame someone else for my failure or lack of action. Me, I’m subscribing.
June 26th, 2005 18:57
Guys, I was just waiting for how long this Mr. Gorilla is going to wait until it will walk in to break of some of the “sharp points” from your observations.
It just did! (You should be ashamed, bringin in such a negative vibes!)
The first name is Mr. ED.
June 28th, 2005 08:30
On 6/26 Gorilla posted a sill active position of BOL with a .70% gain.
Can someone explain me this phenomena when the stop loss at 71.00 was satisfied on 6/24?
Even if this price was touched just briefly, it could have sold and same rules of trading floor should apply to a giant software promoter as it applies to a guy with a $2000 portfolio.
It was actually the first day I have inqured in the integrity of this offer and let me tell you I am not impressed with the honesty in presentationof their portfolio succsess!
June 28th, 2005 08:48
Where is my comment about the fraudulent portfolio of BOL?
You got kicked out on 6/24 and stil in the game?
June 28th, 2005 09:21
ibud,
Just checked the minute chart on BOL. Trigger price was 75.77. The trigger was hit AFTER the price hit $71.00, so you shouldn’t have even been in the position at that point.
Scott
June 28th, 2005 10:51
Scott,
I am little confused by your input.
The stock WAS aquired by Gorilla (as shown omn their portfolio on 6/24 at 75.77 ay opening!!
THAN, it was stoped by 71.00 and sold. And it is STILL NOW shown on their spredsheet boasting about their achievment.
June 28th, 2005 11:03
Hi ibud,
Correct me if I am wrong: BOL open on 6/24 was 75.25. Then it went down to 71.00. Then it hit the trigger at 75.77. The buy was then recorded at 75.77 when the trigger hit.
The complaint here should be that Gorilla wont acknowledge that the trigger was hit unless the stock closes above yesterday’s close, so when that happens Gorilla is gifted with an automatic gain of the difference between close and trigger.
Regards,
Scott
June 28th, 2005 22:09
Ed states “Everyone appears to be missing the point” and it is obvious he is. Patronizing comments do not contribute to this discussion. Don’t give us a lesson, Ed. Our point is on the integrity of reporting. I don’t care if someone is charging hundreds a year or $19.95, if the integrity is lacking it is an issue (in my opinion) that should be discussed.
Good luck with your subscription.
June 28th, 2005 22:10
TRIGGER POINTS UPDATE
Gorilla has yet to reply to either of my two emails regarding trigger price determination. Silence means everything.
June 29th, 2005 09:43
Has anyone ran across a system with integrity. Besides IBD info
June 29th, 2005 20:35
Patty, IBD is good solid info. Read How To Make Money In Stocks” by William J. O’Neil (publisher of IBD). It’s a great read. Just remember that you have to study all you can from as many sources as you can to be the best you can be in stock speculation. Read “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator” by Edwin Lefevre written in the early 1920’s. The stock market was manipulated then and is manipulated now. Even at our best, we may be the victims or benefactors of unknown manipulators.
Bruce, sorry man. My intention was not to be patronizing at all. As you know buying and selling stocks is pure speculation. All we can do is study, learn and reason to the best of our abilities and then try to put it all together for a profit. The goal is to be “right”. Today, I made no trades. I maintained my profits in BOL and avoided a loss in INFY. Today, I was right.
Once the FED gives the signal that they are done raising rates, life should get a little easier fo all us speculators.
I’m using GORILLA in conjunction with IBD. The profits in the past 2 days alone will pay for the annual subscription to both. I understand your desire for integrity, etc. Just remember, it’s the stock market. If you’re investing your money on your own, why? Because stock brokers are consumed with concern over your well being? No, they are not. They love commission which they get whether you win or lose.
Stay sharp, maintaing YOUR integrity and it will come together.
I hope there are no hard feelings.
July 6th, 2005 17:55
I have been using Gorilla Trades for 1 month. I also took a loss on AVID. But I have taken gains on 3 other stocks. I have bought 100 shares on each of these trades. I am up 8% for the month. I have also used Gorilla to make my option trades and as of today my sold options are up 42%. According to the Gorilla trades, the closing price and volume are needed for a confirm. I place my order at 33% of the increase of that present day (Close today 30.75 with .75 increase means open at 30.50 tomorrow; 1/3 of .75 increase subtracted from today close.
July 8th, 2005 22:31
I keep hearing the great stuff on GT as well, just checked out the tutorial and am about to sign up for the free trial, but I got a Special Situations pick in the sample email I got and not two days later it takes off. Granted this is just one stock, but can’t wait to see what’s behind the door… Will keep you all posted.
July 11th, 2005 14:30
Cancelled trail subscription. Gorilla refused to reply to any inquiry regarding the warped trigger price. Anyone can devise a system whereby I look at the stocks and, after seeing the stock rise, say buy stock XYZ and record my recommendation price as the price of the stock BEFORE it rose. Ridiculous. Even more ridiculous that they would not clarify or defend their position.
Doesn’t mean you can’t use Gorilla and make money but their claims are not accurate. IMHO.
Bye you all. Good luck to you (I mean that, want everyone to make money).
July 13th, 2005 14:23
I am in the midst of a 30 day trial of Gorilla Trades. I do not think that the service is valuable. The means by which the portfolio performance is reported is deceiving. The percent return is based on the ‘Trigger Price’ and not a realistic price that shares can be bought at after the stock has ‘Confirmed’. As is pointed out in the educational material, it is very important to wait for picks to confirm before purchase. On the other hand,when the stock is first picked, the risk-reward assessment is based on the trigger, stop sell, and target prices. As the price rises above trigger, the potential reward diminishes and trades make less sense. The ideal seems to be to get in at the trigger price after the stock has confirmed. I ran an analysis on the performance of picks back to 2001 and eliminated those that had not confirmed. The average return on a trade before commissions was about 3.5%. This assumes entry at the trigger price, which is not possible after many stocks confirm. Recent data suggests a holding period of about 2 months. I figure that idealised annual returns are about 15%, based on this and realistic commissions.
I also ran a model based on screening out confirmed stocks with IBD ratings less than 95. The results were better, but still not stellar when stop losses were considered. Their approach seems to pick many stocks that are in the process of forming a base (as described by Investors Business Daily). However their trigger points are below those suggested by IBD: this increases risk and potential return. Risk seems to win out based on the large numbers of stocks that stop out. It might be possible to do well by a very selective approach to the Gorilla picks: cross-check with IBD ratings, study the charts and choose your own entry and exit points. This begins to sound like taking the IBD 100 and other IBD highlighted stocks and doing it all yourself with CANSLIM.
Overall I think that the Gorilla is a monkey and will stay away.
July 13th, 2005 14:49
Dave - I like your analysis. It seems you have done your homework and I also use the IBD and CANSLIM to help with my picks. Are there companies (or tools) similar to GorillaTrades which you feel provide a better service (e.g., entry point, stop losses, 1st target, 2nd target, support and resistance lines)?
July 13th, 2005 15:40
Kim:
I have been trying Amateur-Investors.com. They provide most of what you seek, including lengthy advance notice of the picks. For support and resistance, I plot them myself using StockCharts.com. I have found Steve Nison’s book ‘Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques’ to be very helpful in identifying the more subtle support/resistance levels. If you want to use CANSLIM, then read ALL of the articles in the education database at IBD. StockCharts has great material on technical analysis.
David
July 15th, 2005 12:36
Good comments so far. I like the CANSLIM methodology as well, but I feel that it requires full time study to apply it properly, JMO.
Here’s my exact results on GT to date. I started buying picks on June 23. Confirmed picks only, and I pay no attention to actual trigger dates. I sort the confirmed picks and focus on the stocks that are strongly up on a given day. If the weekly chart looks like it supports an upward trend, I consider buying. So, there is a lot of discretionary activity involved, as there should be (IMO).
Among closed trades, including commisssions, I bot $30,031.68. I sold for $30,957.95, for a net profit of $926.27, or 3.08% net gain of sixteen trading days. The S&P delivered .9% over the same period.
There is $502 in unrealized gains, including commissions for buying the shares.
There were seven round trip trades in sixteen days. Four were winners, Three were losers. Of the four winning positions, I retained 25% of the initial position as directed by GT in hopes of reaching the 2nd price target.
No GT expenses needed to be factored in since I am in the free trial. But since I am on a monthly pay program, the accrued GT expense would have been $39, which would have left me with a total net cash profit of 2.95% over sixteen days
It is what it is.
Hope the info helps.
July 16th, 2005 18:16
Hi Scott:
Glad to hear that you have made a little money. Since you are prepared to study the charts, could you not take a list such as the IBD 100, look at weekly/monthly charts, and take positions in a small number? Many of the Gorilla Picks can be found in the IBD 100. They now highlight those that are within 5% of a buy point and this can save a lot of time (this week they highlight 5 stocks - not too many to study). You do need to study the charts, but the educational material is right there at IBD. They publish chart studies each week to drive home the points. It certainly does not need to be a full-time job. The Gorilla method digs up a lot of possibilities, rather too many for my liking. A number are suggested below a key pivot point, run up to that after purchase and fail at the moment of truth. In a standard base, they may then run down and stop you out before taking another try at the pivot price. If you actually let the stock get above its pivot price, then it has broken through an important resistance level, turning that level into support. 40% of these breakouts will test the support level before proceeding higher. This test adds to the value of the support level. There are two good examples in this weeks highlighted IBD 100 stocks. ELOS broke out on June 29 above the pivot price of 37.25, dropped back the next day, broke out again on July 1st and tested the pivot level on July 15th. It formed a bullish candle that day, ending nicely above the pivot, and looks set to go again on Monday. I might well buy it then, setting my stop below the tail of the July 15th candle. CNC was also in the list: it broke above pivot of $34.50 on July 8th, but touched down at that level again on July 12th, confirming support with an otherwise bearish candle. I’m thinking that I will buy that one as well, all the better if it tests the support area again on Monday.
David
July 19th, 2005 17:27
have a subscription problem.please call 305 5 34 2948
July 31st, 2005 00:15
If anyone is still following this thread, I have found another CANSLIM site.
They have daily watchlists, very clear charts and a powerful tool that analyses any stock using the CANSLIM criteria.
Go to BreakoutWatch.com to take a look at the features. I have used it for three trades so far, with a profit on two and a third still running at over 12% gain. The screening methods are transparent with no ’secret formula’ and reported results are honest.
July 31st, 2005 11:03
David,
Many thanks for the link. We should start a forum that tracks our gains/losses from various systems/strategies.
Regards,
July 31st, 2005 12:49
David,
By briefly looking through the BreakoutWatch site, I can’t tell how CANSLIM has anything to do with their methodology.
It says specifically on the site:
“Third, for those who follow a growth-oriented (CANSLIM â„¢) investment strategy, we have found that many of the fundamental guidelines are open to subjective interpretation. By automatically identifying stocks for inclusion on a watchlist based solely on objective technical conditions, we do not introduce unnecessary bias. We then allow the user to interpret the fundamentals and make their purchase decisions based on their personal preferences and investing goals.”
Like I said earlier, correctly applying CANSLIM requires alot of work and really needs to be a full time job to do it correctly. I don’t see how this site really takes any of the work out of CANSLIM method.
July 31st, 2005 14:09
David,
Another site that I subscribe too with success is Validea.com. It’s a fundamental stock screen. I use the “hot list” portfolio which rebalances once per month. There’s definitely no BS in the way the gains are reported. YTD the porfolio is up 10.6% vs. 1.8% for the S&P. The site also has a “William O’Neil” screen which rebalances monthly. The screen is not strict CANSLIM, but does focus on criteria from O’Neil’s book “How to Make Money in Stocks”. That porfolio is up 11.2% YTD.
Regards,
July 31st, 2005 14:56
Scott:
If you check out a specific stock at BreakoutWatch, it receives a rating ‘CE’ (Canslim evaluator), which is split into CET (Technical) and CEF (Fundamental). If you examine the details, you will see that points are assigned for earnings growth, quarterly earnings acceleration, sales growth, return on equity, and many other specifics. There is also information on the rank of the stock within its industry, and investment by large institutions. Thus you can assess current earnings growth (C), annual earnings (A), leadership (L), institutional following (I). To look at supply (S), you can check out the volume action, relative strength through the charts. Cup with Handle charts are rated: for instance RCQ rates the quality of the right side of the cup, where price is rising. Stocks with good volume on rising days get high ratings and have good ’supply’. The ‘M’ of CANSLIM is taken care of by an excellent summary of market action over the past month with very nice charts that give a fast visual assessment. That leaves ‘N’ to assess. You always need to check out a stock to see what is ‘new’ in the company yourself. The ratings give you a concise assessment of how a stock is doing in terms of many aspects of CANSLIM. The real beauty of the site is in the ability to set criteria to filter the extensive daily offerings of stocks to consider. You can for instance set minimum values for relative strength (RS), right cup quality (RCQ) etc, and then backtest those criteria against the past three months of breakouts. You can then see how the return on the filtered stocks compares with the averages for all breakouts. Once you have a good set of filters, your work in due dilligence is vastly reduced ( and made easy by convenient links from the stock summary).
One thing that I have learned is that stocks do not often fit the perfect CANSLIM guidelines, ROE > 17%, annual eranings growth for three years > 25% etc. BreakoutWatch lays out all these criteria and gives a rating. You can see if the stock is moving in the right direction, if not meeting perfection. In the same way, not all Cup & Handle patterns are perfect, and the ratings help you choose the better ones. Those ratings are clearly linked to subsequent performance as well.
The only way to see how the system works is to try it for two weeks. What is quite teling is that the trial is not free and costs $9.95. What do you usually get when you pay nothing?
David
July 31st, 2005 15:26
What about using vecotrvest for weekly/monthly trades? anyone had positive/negative experiences?
Rick
July 31st, 2005 18:46
David,
Thanks for the great info. Would like to hear if you decide to move beyond the trial.
August 2nd, 2005 21:12
I sure would like to see all those 15 year summaries, using the same strategy with the same input values (i.e., no optimization or ‘fitting’) — if this is true, why aren’t you publishing your results as a system developer on the Tradestation Site? You would have many interested buyers.
August 11th, 2005 01:02
Rick,
I’ve been using the free trial of VectorVest to see what it thinks about the GorillaTrades picks. I only buy the picks that VectorVest recommends too. Most of the picks are indicating buy with VectorVest also.
August 17th, 2005 18:49
The monkey has been really awful this month. Lots of losses throughout the month. Their returns look pretty good when you add in June and July, but August is just nasty. I am down $3043 so far.
August 17th, 2005 22:12
Hi Scott:
Funny that you should post today. Since I cancelled my monkey trial, I have been deluged with offers to entice me back. The most recent was today with a free open house week in the Jungle. I looked over the recent closed positions again and saw many stopped out picks that had been confirmed. This is what kills gains. When I was still trying the service I went through the whole history and the returns were dreadful when stop losses were properly included, rather than being swept under the thick vegetation.
I have confirmed my membership with BreakoutWatch.com at the Platinum level. I remain very pleased with the service. My trading has gone down to zero lately, as the markets move sideways and breakouts are few. I also subscribe to Decision Point which identified a very overbought state of the Markets at the end of July and predicted at best consolidation. That has been confirmed for much of August and has linked to a lot of failed breakouts. So right now I own only two stocks from BreakoutWatch and they are down 0.5% and 2.5% respectively. I have learned that there are times when it is best to be in cash and stand aside. (This is what also amazes me about the Gorilla, as ‘he’ pushes buys irrespective of the market, and appears to pay little attention to which are the strongest sectors.) Right now, I plan to wait until Decision Point tells me that a strong market upturn is in the offing and then dive in with BreakoutWatch picks with a view to holding for days to a few weeks only.
I follow the CANSLIM mailing list and another site besides BreakoutWatch that has been favourably mentioned by several participants is The Growth Stock Report. It is free and has a very limited list of picks. There is just one this week, NX, a steelmaker. That alone impressed me. Some of the CANSLIM newslist members say they have done well from the picks. I have not had the chance to buy anything yet but will keep following the weekly updates.
I find that it is a lot of fun following these sites, but I’m not convinced that it is the right way to invest a lot of one’s money. Most of my assets are going into energy, where I see a very long-term bull market. To take one example of a company UTS (Ticker UEYCF.PK and Website) which along with Petro-Canada is developing an oil-sands project to eventually produce 190,000 barrels per day (76,000 to UTS) for 40 years. Market Cap is about $1.2 billion. The Canadian Oil Sands trust produces 83,000 barrels per day now and has a market cap of $8 billion. What would you guess that will be in 10 years, when oil will be selling for far more than it is now? UTS pulled back about 7% today and it is likely that an oil sector correction is just starting. Pick up some of those shares when the oil index ($XOI) looks to be bottoming and you can bet heavily on a ten-bagger in 6-7 years, 40% pa compounded. If you have any doubt of the importance of the Alberta Oil Sands, you may want to look into the alarm of the Bush administration as the Chinese have lately been buying into major projects. Bush has already had Energy Secretary Snow visit the Oil Sands, and Cheney will visit next month. I predict a bidding war which will drive up the value of the assets. At any rate, the potential returns are large and it is a lot easier than chasing CANSLIM stocks. Another great stock to pick up will be that of Synenco when it does an IPO. Anyway, I digress.
Good luck with trading!
David
August 17th, 2005 22:23
Hi Scott:
Sorry, the BreakoutWatch link seems to be broken. Here it is again. Hopefully that link will work.
David
August 18th, 2005 16:55
I’d like to thank all of you for your comments and suggestions. As a rookie in this game, I’ve found you have to look long and hard before leaping into anything regarding a fee service. Trying to filter out the non-sincere is almost an impossible task. This is why forums such as this are so important.
I’ve been researching and evaluating different ways to enter the stock market which led me to this site! My work is seasonal and I’m looking at stock trading to fill in the gaps. I’ve been immersed in technical analysis tools and about ready to get started. I was leaning towards becoming a day trader and planning to use market-scanning software to help select my picks. Then I thought, the returns that some sites I visited are boasting huge returns and maybe I should sign-up. My goal in to make 40K to 50k after taxes.
I would like to know you guys’ opinion and/or experiences. What opinionated advice would you give a rookie such as myself based on my goal? I.e., day-trading and etc..
Thanks
August 18th, 2005 17:36
Hi Nick:
A key question is how do you view both the money that you intend to invest and the proceeds from the investment? Can you afford to lose any significant part of your capital, and will the income be crucial to you? This really addresses the risk you are prepared to take. Can you accept lumpy returns or will you need a steady flow? How does losing three or four thousand feel to you? If there will be strong negative emotions about that, stay well away from day trading! Research shows over and over that the large majority of day traders lose money. Only a very few do well.
It’s hard to give any ideas without answers to these basic questions.
David
August 19th, 2005 20:32
David thanks for the info! I was looking to receive a study income, taking profits daily and reinvesting the seed money. Realizing there will be days of lost. Loosening 2k to 3k does sound a little intimidating to me, although I wouldn’t mind if could quickly make it up? I’m not counting on income form this venture, yet extra income would be nice.
Can anyone share a point of entry in the stock market where the individual investor does well?
Thanks, Nick
August 19th, 2005 22:26
Nick:
My best advice is not to count on any regular income at all. Aim for capital gains and be patient. If a loss of 2 or 3k will drive you to make it back quickly, then you are going to be a gambler and a poor investor.
The question you ask is very hard to answer without some idea of how much capital you can both invest and risk. I’m still not clear on how much risk you are willing to take.
If you are going to buy stocks, some say that there is little point unless you have about $50,000 to start. That sounds reasonable to me. Having spent 12 years at it now, my suggestion would be to take out a subscription to Decision Point for $20 per month. That would fit with your study of technical analysis. Study that site carefully for a month and get a good feel on how to take the pulse of the market and the different sectors. Invest when the market is stronger and use Decision Point to identify the best sector(s). Learn the ins and out of the proprietary PMO indicator from that site, which I am gaining more and more appreciation for. At first you might buy ETFs which cover strong sectors - ride the trend until clear sell signals appear. It works. I lately bought a Biotech ETF on a Decision Point buy signal and rode it for a nice 18% in 6 weeks. ETFs have the big advantage that they eliminate the risk of single stocks which can drop like a stone after missing projected earnings by 2 ¢. They say that the trend is your friend - well DP is great way to identify the trend and ride it.
David
August 20th, 2005 02:57
David,
To give you a better idea, I have 60k to invest and my stop lost would be 10%.
Thanks again,
Nick
August 20th, 2005 12:19
Nick:
Then I would stick to what I have said. Right now the market is very overbought and almost all sectors are pulling back or ‘consolidating’ (moving sideways at best). Most of your gains come from a general appreciation of the market. If you intend to try and invest across the broad sectors of the market, then my best advice is to stay in cash. Watch the market and wait for a good opportunity to enter. A very good way to do this is follow some measures of market health. If you join Decision Point, you will find a wealth of ways to do this. One very simple method is to watch the NYSE Bullish Percent Index. I have made up a chart here to give you the idea. The start of the present bull market is marked by a green circle. The peaks and troughs of the BPI very nicely correspond to turning points of the broad market. Notice the yellow circles which mark the most recent ‘opportunity’ in May of this year. That was the start of a good run through June and July. The BPI turned as of early August. If you recall that Scott said that he had done well from Gorilla trades in June and July, but that August was awful and he was down over $3000. This is a good time to wait for a bottom in the BPI. If it drops to below 30 (unlikely I think), that would be great since it can mark a major bottom. The other thing to notice on the chart is the subtle sign of weakening in the market throughout the last 18 months. Despite a general market rise, the peaks in BPI are trending down. This means that fewer stocks are participating in the bull market. (Does ‘fewer’ mean a concentration in areas like energy?) If you go to StockCharts.com, I think that you can see this type of chart for free under the ‘Market Summary’ section.
So, I would join Decision Point and learn the system whilst waiting for a good opportunity. When it comes, you could either use DP to choose good stocks and ETFs or subscribe to a stock picking service. If you are determined to invest now, then you need to be in a sector that is strong. In a previous message I gave the opinion that energy stocks are good. I’d stick to that. I also like gold stocks, but they can be very volatile and would test your 10% rule frequently. I subscribe to a newsletter service covering energy and junior gold stocks and the results are excellent. However, it involves trading a lot of stocks on the Vancouver exchange and being OK with up to 25% pull-backs. These things can also tack on 25% in a few days. If you were very interested, I could point you at the service, but I don’t think that it fits with your position. I am putting less than 10% of my assets into these stocks looking for big returns, while well over 50% of the total is in cash. If I had only 60k, then 40k would be in cash and the other 20k would be split equally between an oil service trust and a large cap oil trust, each yielding better than 12%.
Hope this helps.
David
August 20th, 2005 14:19
Thanks David, the info you provided was extremely helpful. I will return to let you know how I’ve faired!
Nick
August 24th, 2005 08:07
Accuratetrader.com is a Site for anyone looking for a completely automated and documented approach to trading in the stock market.
August 25th, 2005 21:12
Thanks for the link, Ray. I went to the site and cliked on the “performance” link. I had a good laugh when it delivered a TradeStation report for a strategy backtested on IBM for the past 15 years. I too am a TradeStation user and can deliver profitable backtested strategies on any stock over any time frame. What kind of returns would you like to see? 100%? 1000%? Curve-fitting is a wonderful thing. Give me a break!
August 27th, 2005 06:45
About GorillaTrades
I think a good part of the success of their picks is more closely related to the fact that quite often following a specific stock pick, the same stock is ‘highlighted’ in the IBD the following mornng! Front running is illegal, and since they are profiting from subscriptions ( as opposed to buying the picked stock in front of the subscribers) , this seems illegal.
August 27th, 2005 09:49
Ray,
Do you have specific examples of this “front running?†I would have thought that this sort of thing would have been caught long ago if it was true, but it would be interesting to see nonetheless.
August 29th, 2005 12:52
Because ANYONE can backtest a winner. Why would anyone care if I published it or not. If I can generate 1 winning strategy, I can make 1000. Who cares? The inputs don’t have to be dynamic to be fitted.
August 29th, 2005 16:20
To: David Cross
I’m an avid reader of IBD and did well with the last confirmed rally. Do you read IBD? If so, do you find the BreakoutWatch site helpful as a supplement to IBD?
August 29th, 2005 17:04
Hi Markg:
I do read IBD, but am certainly not an avid reader. I have read over all of the educational material on the IBD site to help understand CANSLIM and especially Cup & Handle breakouts. If you have grasped that, then BreakoutWatch will be a very helpful site. The access to company data is very good from BreakoutWatch and this helps a lot when judging a company against the CANSLIM criteria. As I said in another post, I use Decision Point to monitor market health - the depth on sector analysis is far more extensive than IBD provides. When the market is in a good uptrend again, BOW will be a great source of ideas. I like the filtering features at BOW. There is a heavy flow of potential buys when the market is good. To narrow them down, I look for high Relative Strength ranking. That nicely reduces the number to consider. After spending a few minutes per day on research I put new potential buys into my personal watch list, which is linked to an e-mail alert service when a breakout seems to be happening. The other nice feature is the ability to backtest one’s screening criteria (such as Relative Strength) against the database of past breakouts. In this way you can look for criteria that may increase potential gains.
I certainly recommend a trial, but the next two weeks may not be the best time to do it. Wait for a better market.
August 30th, 2005 10:29
Goodday David:
I’ve been using IDB since late May and used their Bold border picks with success. I guess I was luckly since I got in at the right time. Now the IBD100, IBD20 and Weekly Review have no borders for the reason I understand that the market is weak right now. However, there are a lot of potential picks based on their charts. They recommend keeping a watch list and I agree with that also. I have limited time and that’s why I’m curious about the BOW site. It could save me time in keeping a list and monitoring it. Any additional comments would be appreciated.
In addition, I’ve been having a hard time in determining a sell point. I’ve waited until the stock reached a 20% profit before selling. Most of my picks made it that far. Some tanked to a 8% loss or worse (Huge gap down).
I guess I’m developing a style that wants to be more short term and also trade during the down times. That’s what attracted me to GorrillaTrades. Right now I’m in the trial period and will opt out before 30 days. However I’m intrigued with the methods they use for trading. I would like to trade that way. But instead of just using their suggestions, I would like to do it on my own. I need to learn. So I guess I’m trying to develop a way to trade like they do. I could use BOW to determine ‘buys’ but I don’t know how to determine targets and stops. (Support/Resistence?) Any ideas?
August 30th, 2005 11:35
Hi Markg:
You started in the market at a good time. It was very easy to make money in May and June. IBD and BOW focus on high growth stocks and the CANSLIM method. Do not forget the ‘M’ for Market. You are not supposed to be buying now. Check out the Growth Stock Report site, which is very good, and note that the red flag is up. It is very tough now - few stocks are breaking out and those that do often fail to advance well. For all I know the market could be a dog for months now.
When the market is good, I would recommend BOW for ideas. Knowing when to sell and how to set stops is important and you should try to understand support and resistance. I have learned a good deal about this from Steve Nison’s book: Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques (2nd Edition). He spends quite a lot of time on risk and reward, which depend on support and resistance, price targets/stops.
Before you trade like the Gorilla, look at the record. I did by making an Excel spread sheet of all the trades that they list in the records of closed positions. I included only confirmed picks and used their very optimistic gains based on purchase at the trigger price. Their record is dismal when losses are correctly included in this way. That said, if you were to shut down trading in poor markets, you might do well from their picks
If you want to buy stocks now then you need to invest in strong sectors. I am doing that but not with a CANSLIM approach.
David
August 31st, 2005 12:31
David,
I am not sure I understand how you calculated the monkey’s profit/loss based on their closed trades record. I have my issues with the Gorilla, but it seems to me that their trade record is more or less pretty fairly calculated. I have made my own Excel adjustments which throws out all of the listed gains made on a 25% remaining share, AND added 2% to all of the losing trades to conservatively calculate trade fills, and I still show a pretty healthy long term gain for them.
September 6th, 2005 22:32
Scott, I was wondering if you had a chance to review the ad on developer site at:
http://www.tradestationaddons.com/Products_Services/Directory.aspx , and if in your view any of the products or methods presented there , notwithstanding the negative/adverse effects of optimizing or fitting, have any use/value. If not , do you think that a modification in the Tradestation software that removes the optimization functionality and inputs, in order to standardize the application of strategies to historical price data would lend more credence to performance results?
September 7th, 2005 20:13
I have spent the last hour reading the above comments. I have myself done the trail month with the Gorilla along with many other sites. I haven’t been too impressed with any of them. I have started something new. After talking to a friend that is a manager with Charles Schwab, he has got me doing the following. I like short term or swing trading so he gave me the simplist way to do it. I trade only a few things like QQQQ, SMH, XLE and maybe a few high volume stocks. I use a chart with sma= 4,9,18. I then buy the cross overs. When the first line crosses to the upside I buy 1/3 position. When the second crosses I buy the other 2/3. I do the same for taking short positions.
Very simple
September 7th, 2005 21:45
Hi Marke:
I looked at your system and it certainly would have given some nice trades on the QQQQ over the last 6 months. Using MACD(12,26,9) cross-overs would have worked a little better, eliminating some whip-saws. I was not very impressed by the XLE. Between May 16 and now, there would have been 7 crosses, with only two trades leading to reasonable profits. XLE has been in a strong uptrend and the ideal would have been one trade on May 16 and hold to now. My opinion is that there are too many signals from your system. If you want to trade these spiders, I think that you would do better with the signals available at DecisionPoint. That said, I can’t understand why you would trade the XLE. Energy stocks are driven by the price of oil and move in concert a lot more than would tech stocks. Why not buy a strong member of the group rather than a mixed bag? Between May 16 and now, XLE is up 34%. Contrast that with CNQ, a favourite of the analysts and a lovely stock, up 77% in the same period. Another excellent approach would be to go to DecisionPoint and look at the charts of all of the stocks included in the XLE, where they are ranked by strength, and buy the strongest - that happens to be Valero Energy (VLO) just now. VLO has moved from $60 to $111 since May 16.
David
September 8th, 2005 10:14
Hi Ray,
Don’t get me wrong, I’m a huge fan of TradeStation. I have done more optimizations than I can count and continue to do so. The amount of learning that can be done is tremendous. My only point is that if I were considering buying into a trading system, I would need to see alot more than one performance report that traded IBM stock. Just last week I cleaned my harddrive and erased thousands of old performance reports. How many were reports of “winning†backtested strategies? Hundreds and hundreds. So why would I lend any credence to just one?
I don’t know if you’ve seen the Attain Capital website, but those guys report on the actual trades on many black box systems. That’s what I am looking for: actual trade records. Sure, past performance in NO guarantee of future results, but it is a hell of alot better than going off of hypothtical backtest reports. Consider this also: how does a computer know if it’s hypothtical trade gets filled at the price it wants? Answer: It doesn’t.
Regards,
September 8th, 2005 17:01
Can you give me more info on decision point. How do you use it and what does it do for you. I like swing or short term trades.
thanks, marke
September 8th, 2005 22:30
Hi Marke:
I use DecisionPoint to monitor the overall markets and individual sectors. I like to find a strong sector and buy an index fund (if there is a lot of risk in individual stocks), or look out a good stock within the sector. An example of the former would be Biotech, where one bad report can take 50% out of a stock in a day; in that area I have played IBB successfully. As I said before, if the XLE or a Gold tracker looks good, then I would want to find a particular strong stock. Daily updates give buy and sell signals on all of the sectors, so it is possible to buy a stock early in a new trend. I am usually looking to hold for days to a few weeks and turn a profit of 10% up. To me ’swing trades’ usually involve a day to a week or two, so this might not suit you. For me, 10% made in 4 to 6 weeks would be fine.
You can look over DecisionPoint yourself and try it for a month for $20. I have been playing with making web-pages and took the time to make up an example of how a trade based on following the XLE might work. You can see it here. One of the very best tools on the site for timing trades is the PMO, as you will see.
I hope that this helps.
September 10th, 2005 02:26
Hi everyone,
I have been reading this thread with great interest as it has developed. Like many others, I tried the GT free trial for a month - really wanting it to be successful - but came away unimpressed. And the concerns raised by many of the above posters bothered me too.
So I did the next best thing I could do - I went through the GT archives over a full year and analyzed all completed trades (275+). I looked at:
- the Gorilla’s reported returns
- portfolio size trends (assuming you purchased all triggered/confirmed stocks) and portfolio correlation with the S&P.- portfolio size trends (assuming you purchased all triggered/confirmed stocks) and portfolio correlation with the S&P.
- an investor’s portfolio return if the recommendations were purchased at market open the day after it triggers (or confirms)
- the difference between the trigger price the Gorilla reports vs. what you can expect to pay in the market
- performance relative to the S&P
- gains obtained by selling the entire position at the first and/or second target
- basic statistics (like holding period/turnover)
- distribution and performance of trades by risk rating
The results, to put it mildly, are very interesting, even though they span a relatively short period of just over a year. However, as much I would have liked to have shared the results with this forum, I have put in too much time and money (I hired a college kid to pull all the data I needed) to give it all away.
I am contemplating writing a report with the above analyses and offering it for sale at a very reasonable price. So before actually spending time on the report, I was wondering what the response would be. Would YOU be interested in a report of this type for, say, $15-$30? I have still not completed the analysis for confirmed trades (since I was willing to go with triggers only), but will add that into the report if there is sufficient interest in a paid report.
I expect the report to run about 10-15 pages and results would only be reported in the aggregate so no stock names would be mentioned. The analysis should be very useful for those who only focus on a few Gorilla picks as well, as opposed to buying all recommendations.
I am just a keen, individual, non-professional investor like most others on this forum. So this isn’t a pitch for a blatantly commercial product - apologies if it may have come across that way. I am just looking to recover some of the costs I’ve incurred and share some of my findings with the group.
Comments?
Regards,
Manish
September 10th, 2005 09:30
Thanks Scott. I will be able to accept most forms of payment (including Paypal and credit cards). I can probably have the report available within the next week, subject to sufficient interest.
September 10th, 2005 09:33
Also, others can email me at mapkellogg (AT) yahoo.com to indicate their interest in the GT report, rather than cluttering up this board with semi-private messages
September 10th, 2005 11:50
Hi Manish:
Best of luck with your report. Have you thought of offering the report via Google? One of those small box ads that come up when a person searches on certain key-words, perhaps.
As I said in an earlier message, I ran the confirmed picks of the Gorilla (alias: the monkey) all the way back to 2001. This included losses 75% and 25% position gains as reported. There was no attempt to check the honesty of the numbers, and this might be an important caveat. I assumed equal purchases of every stock at trigger price. The average gain was about 3.5%. Of course, it is not possible to buy all of the confirmed stocks at the trigger price, so this average gain really applies to nobody at all. The Gorilla notes that some positions were closed ‘at the open’: I take this to mean that the stock fell, a stop loss was triggered and the sell price was the opening price of the day (perhaps better than an actual investor would achieve). Anyway, the reporting of the Gorilla is rather opaque. A more realistic average gain would be closer to zero. Good luck to those who stay in the jungle!
September 10th, 2005 13:21
David,
Can you do this analysis on ALL of the monkey picks, non-confirmed included? It looks to me like the monkey has achieved solid gains as a total, but I certainly won’t rule out that I am looking at this incorrectly. In my analysis, I assumed closing all trades at the first target, and I added 2% to all of the losses. Even as such, the gains look very solid. Again, I could be mistaken.
Thanks,
September 10th, 2005 14:29
Scott:
I did not copy over any unconfirmed stocks into my spreadsheet. The Gorilla repeatedly warns that it is best to wait for confirmation, so I took him/her at his/her word. I don’t have access to the web-site to get the data again. I stuck to the closed trades as provided, so the first gain was weighted as % gain*0.75 and the second as %gain*0.25. Losses were usually %loss*1.0. I added all of those up and divided the total by the overall number of buys. Result was close to 3.5%. I was struck by the large number of losing trades and also that many of the gains were quite modest.
I have to believe that adding in unconfirmed stocks would worsen the results. What number did you get anyway?
September 10th, 2005 16:07
David:
I ran the numbers again based on their spreadsheet. I included all closed trades since May 1 of this year. I added 2% to each of their losses (this is based on my own experience of market fills on using their closing trigger: if it errs it does so on the side of conservativism, IMO). Winning trades are closed out at the first target.
Average gain per trade: 1.35%
When you look at it month to month, the numbers are all over the place. August to date, for example, was a huge failure for the monkey with a loss of 1.32% per trade (on very heavy trading, I might add).
Someone needs to look at the data closer to get a better understanding of what that means; figure out the average holding time, etc. Personally I’m not going to commit anymore of my own money to it until that’s done. I feel pretty stupid for losing the money that I did without doing my homework first. I got greedy with my initial gains and got sucked into just letting the monkey roll.
Cheers,
September 10th, 2005 16:34
Hi Scott:
That is a grim return in a period that was quite good until August came along. You really have to stand aside when the market is in poor shape. The monkey likes to create the illusion that the secret system can do well, rain or shine. I don’t see any evidence that Gorilla Trades makes any adjustment to market conditions, either by curtailing trades when the market is poor or at least by focussing picks on strong sectors. Just the same old 2-3 potentially powerful picks per day!
The ’system’ doesn’t need any more study in my opinion. If idealised returns per trade are 1.35%, why bother? Good investment newsletters don’t need to beat the drum in the way that the monkey does. The come-ons keep pouring into my mail-box regularly. What that says to me is that a steady flow of suckers is needed to sustain the business (and pay for those 4 page ads in IBD). Glad to hear that you are moving on.
September 10th, 2005 20:14
Did anyone (current or former subscribers) receive an email from the Gorilla today with the “Rally Time†monkey file?
This is a .swf file with the animation of a monkey jumping up and down with a sign saying “rally time†and is something that became popular a few years ago at the Anaheim Angels’ games.
I do get periodic emails pitches from the Gorilla to subscribe (my trial ended some time ago), but I wonder what the context here is. I wonder if I did something in my original post above to deserve this…
September 20th, 2005 22:57
Wow, I’m a GorillaTrades subscriber and have been overwhelmed by the success I’ve had with trades. Granted I don’t take every pick, I research things - exactly what should be expected from such a service. Some people want to just cozy up to a service and expect the benjamins to roll in. What foolishness.
Wow again, this last post by David occurs just 20 minutes after the last post by Scott, yet this coincidence of a response happens to refer to his email. Sounds like you all either have way too much time on your hands or are the same person. In fact, this whole page is dominated by banters back and forth by mostly the same people.
And now you’re selling stuff… one guy with his expose’, another bunch dropping names. And now I click on the breakout watch link at the top of the page to find that you’re trying to cash in as a referrer - this is what I get.
http://www.breakoutwatch.com/ (referral link has been removed - Scott K)
hmmmm
September 21st, 2005 07:48
With an open forum like this, it does leave the possibility of entering in a different email address and rolling as a different user. I think to start pointing fingers was jumping the gun on my behalf though I was shocked to see that referral link.
It looks like Scott came up with 1.35% gain per trade - am I interpretting this correctly? Is this an annualized return rate or per trade? If per trade, and they’re giving multiple picks per day, than as long as you’re investing enough so that commission doesn’t absorb too much, it seems GorillaTrades is doing its job.
On your adjoinging page, “A Critical Look at Paytrading†page, you state: “Eric Shawn states that with just $2000 one can accumulate $1,000,000 in a span of just 10 years. This is assuming a 1% gain per trade over 625 trades.†And GorillaTrades is doing 1.35% per trade? Granted you have to place 62.5 trades per year, but when they’re even giving you the parameters, you can enter the order, check in on it regularly and enjoy life.
Plus, this argument even assumes that you blindly follow the Gorilla. GorillaTrades is based off of technical analysis. Why not do a little due diligence yourself and pick only those that also fit your criteria, and curb your picking when the market is soft.
September 21st, 2005 09:15
Has anyone used or looked at either
The Original Turtle Trader
or
Turtle Trader
They are different
Marke
September 21st, 2005 11:20
Mike P,
Just wanted to let you know that this Scott K and the other Scott are different people. I have no problem with the Gorilla helping me in my research. In your last comment, your antecedent noun is very confusing. Please clarify who you are talking about it in the future. Also, please don’t confuse this post with my post about Paytrading. I have them separated for a reason. Furthermore, why the animosity towards Scott and David? They are different people. I checked the IP addresses of their posts and David is coming from ISP in Canada, while Scott is coming from Los Angeles. Please keep your future comments only on the subject of investing so as to not clog up this forum with pointless garbage.
And, I believe what Scott means when he said 1.35% is that when annualized for the year this is the increase that he would have seen. Had you read the article on Paytrading, you would have seen that they are totally different. Paytrading attempts to get 1% gains per trade, however, the duration of each trade is much, much less than one year, as small as a single day in some cases.
In the future, I might have to start moderating posts in order to make sure that comments stay on topic.
September 21st, 2005 12:35
Thanks for pointing out the referrals, Mike. However, I seriously doubt that David and Scott are the same person. They have different email addresses and are just both interested in investing. Manish is offering his report for sale at a reasonable price in order to compensate himself for the time it took to produce it. I really wouldn’t worry that this website is “selling stuff.†It primarily exists to provide information about, among other things, investing strategies.
Scott K
September 21st, 2005 13:42
Hi:
Nothing to add on the Gorilla issue that has not already been said. I thought that all interested in catching a secular investment trend might want to read this interview with Pierre Lassonde, President of Newmont Mining. The most eye-catching statement in the interview is:
‘PL: This is a major, major secular trend that only happens once every two generations. You get on it and just stay with it. That’s how you are going to really make money.’
He is speaking of investing in gold miners, a group that is now doing well in a sideways market. As an investment idea, it is far from CANSLIM and the Gorilla concept, but it would be a shame to miss out on if his predictions are halfway true.
David
September 27th, 2005 12:46
“but it would be a shame to miss out on if his predictions are halfway true.â€
IMO if gold is really in a “major, major secular trend†(is that anything like super-duper major?) then a better way to play it is with gold futures, not gold miners. Miners are a dodgy bunch, and you’ll never know how they’re hedging themselves. May as well go straight to the well for your drink.
September 27th, 2005 19:00
I was trying to find some reviews on Gorilla Trades and was glad to have discovered this page. Any new updates / info on the monkey?
September 29th, 2005 14:48
GOLD miners…
Responding to Scott, the reasons miners are a dodgy group is that they forward their gold and some forward stuff they don’t have or in the worst offenders sell forward gold they never intended on delivering.
The reason why gold went up so much is that hedge funds are on to this and they have squeezed the banks and other forward loaners by ASKING FOR PHYSICAL DELIVERY of gold sitting in their vaults rather than allowing to reforward the bullion …
General De Gaulle did the same strategy when the AMericans pegged the US dollar at $35 per once of gold after the Brendan Woods accords of 1945… De gaulle said fine I will convert all my US dollars in Gold at that price… NEedless the accord ended as Forth Know kept having to courrier it the Elysee palace…
BEst bet in owning gold miners is to choose top tier suppliers who have been around 20 years with a couple of billions in producing mines around the world who have less than 20% of their production sold forward…. Watch out for those using unsavory mining practices (toxic chemical leaching). Those will give you the biggest bang for the buck … In Canada it’s Placer Dome symbol is PDG on TSE but iâ€m sure it trades also on Big board… Barrick and the others are sold forward up the yazoooooooooo!
In the meantime I own very little US currency and mostly Asian currencies…
Hope that helps
September 29th, 2005 15:17
Scott and CryWolf:
I’m not sure about dodgy. Many of the gold miners are unhedged, including the stocks composing the HUI index. Since mid-May, gold is up over 13%, but Newmont (NEM) is up 36%, and another excellent member of the HUI, Meridian (MDG) is up 52%. You might look at MDG - the chart shows a fairly smooth ride since May. If you can tolerate some more volatility, BGO has returned a nice 63% since May, and 69% per year since 2001! The gold miners seem to be worth considering to me. Gold itself is a conservative play, but could rise sharply in the next months to years.
David
September 29th, 2005 16:50
WOW more sharply than a 19yr high …gold is sure doing well!
Bullion served the people well…
and when the Chinese stop propping the US 10yr-T, we will see GOLD do a nice bump-up
GOLD is not a conservative play because anything that doesn’t generate income or considered a productive asset is and should always be considered a speculative play…
As for owning one stock versus another I’ll leave that to your particular cristal ball… All I was trying to point out is that hedging and pollution are the two most obvious risks that investors fail to understand and verify for themselves… I have asked those questions to many auditors at shareholders’ meetings and less than 20% can honestly say that they examine the actual sales records(yeah like I’ll fly a guy to Burkina Faso and check it out for you) or offer truly independent environmental assesments. TRUYLY INDEPENDENT ONLY GET ONE JOB AND THEY BETTER FIND ANEW LINE OF WORK.
These new mines are always in remote and under-developped countries. They are no match for the slick firms and lobbysts hired to get mining concessions by greasing the right palms. Only when a couple million fish die and thousand of locals start getting sick does the investor seem to care… A bit late!
And that’s from a guy who sold Arequipa a 20 cents stock at 20 bux!
Mind you, with the average company selling at 30 times profits it’s industry in a perpetual state of lofty evaluation to which one replies: “High risk vs high rewardsâ€
Too bad it’s not only the dollars that are at risk!
September 29th, 2005 17:04
DidCryWolf:
Your message is? I think that I will continue to look at the charts and get on with making money from gold stocks! I find that works better than focussing on a washing list of worries.
David
September 29th, 2005 17:30
Cheers!
All in good fun!
as the name implies DID-CRY-WOLF!
Now I came here looking fo reason to subscribe to Gorilla and nothing here convinced me. Especially the bit about no more than 5-10% in each position implying you had to hold at least 10 positions to get going. I used to subscribe to http://www.findprofit.com/ and I made some really nice scores with them but I sure wished they had a gorilla type stop loss process because I let some losses get out of hand. they also have LOTS of stocks to follow and that becomes quickly overwhelming.
My request would be something to manage preferably 5 to a max of 10 positions at once (too lazy and relaxed to do more than that. I could feed it both Gorilla stocks and findprofit and choose the 5-10 positions that come up on top on a continuing basis.
Sums it up as: “I would really like to find a nice trading system to match a nice talkâ€
Any suggestions?
October 3rd, 2005 10:18
I, like DIDCRYWOLF, came to this website to get users opinions about Gorilla Trading and other options.
I recently sold my business and have money to invest. I am looking to get a blended return of around 12 percent per year. I have substantial money in muni bonds and will hold those until maturity as they were bought years ago. I have heard it over and over again that I should sell. 7% tax free is ok with me for a portion of my portfolio.
I have substantially more to invest. My brain is too small and slow to understand charting. I have been burned by brokers too often and I am tired of them gloating about single digit returns.
So what should I do. Here is some more info:
1. Over 500k to invest and this is less than 10 percent of my assets.
2. I have time to commit but do not wish to make this more than 4 hours a week.
3. I have the most basic computer skills. (e mail and internet)
4. I would prefer a stock trading system that is reliable and easy to use and has a solid history or success.
5. I am somewhat risk adverse. I worked hard to get where I am and do not want to do it again. I am 47 and want to spend time with my wife and kids and I travel 8 weeks a year (for fun).
6. I would love big gains but the truth is I do not expect it. I am seeking, in baseball terms, alot of singles and doubles.
7. Real estate in Southern California scares me. Yesterday I saw a 800 sq ft condo that looks into the back of a supermarket on one side , into another apt on the otherside, into a back of an apartment building on another side for 400k. I would pay about 100k tops! It is all concrete. NO greenery, no amenties except a supermarket being a fence climb away.
I was intrigued by Gorilla and now am confused. Some say it is great and some say it isn’t; especially since you can never buy at the target prices. There is alot of talk about IDB. What is the success of that service? Any other services I should consider? Any Suggestions?
Thanks.
October 3rd, 2005 11:05
Hi Richard M,
What you need is a professional money manager who will managed that extra 500K more agressively than you can stomach or second yourself for. I have a right guy who all my other financial industry friends use for their own account. THe name of the company is Formula growth they have a very enviable record and their semi-private long/short fund is giving nice numbers this year.( something like 17%) These guys have been at it for more than 20 years and rising bond yields is definitely NOT a palce for well intentioned investors. AS we all know, the road to hell is paved with those…
a)I am in no way recommeding this or is this a solicitation… heck I don’t even work there!!! b) I don’t even know if American investor can buy in to this fund which is based in Canada but manages ONLY MID-CAP US listed companies
c) if it were me I would buy OTHER currencies than US dollars even as term deposits,as purchasing power in the US country will be going to HEll soon enough wiht energy and All non-food commodities have risen to set you upfor Stagflation ( remember the Vietnam war and the 73 oil cartel?) how quickly people forget…
Cheers!
Good Luck
P.
October 23rd, 2005 12:33
I have posted my Gorilla Trades results for a 7-month period. It is available near the end of the post above.
Scott
October 23rd, 2005 18:48
Scott K
I do not understand why you are happy with your results. You had 34 trades for an average net gain per trade of 1.05%. Your total profit on all the trades was $1,300.
That is an average of less than $40 a trade. Your average transaction costs and your average net profit per trade are almost the same. WAY too much work for such a small profit. Of course, I may have misread or misanalyzed your numbers. I am interested in your thoughts.
October 23rd, 2005 19:17
Scott K:
It looks like you invested about $3000 per trade, but how much did you have to invest in total? If all you risked was $3000, then $1300 was a good return in 7 months. Please clarify.
David
October 23rd, 2005 19:37
Hey,
I have updated the site. I had about $25,000 to invest in total. On average I tried to have about $3000 in each stock. Stocks would reach their target sell price or stop out, and I would then reinvest that money in a new pick. I roughly estimate that I made about 6% in those 7 months, which, I believe, would have beat an S&P 500 index fund. Does that sound right?
Edit: Thanks, David. Anyone know how 9% compares to the S&P 500 performance this year so far?
October 23rd, 2005 21:14
Scott K:
I think that your annualised return rate was about 9%.
David
October 26th, 2005 16:13
I was googling for some reviews on Gorilla and came across this interesting piece of info.
I’m not able to decide whether this is the right time to jump in the market.
Any help/direction appreciated.
Thanks,
–Mahesh
November 2nd, 2005 20:22
Nice pick on the oil sands thing, David; I would be interested in hearing how it went for you.
November 2nd, 2005 21:23
Hi Shawn:
I was lucky enough to pick up a large block of shares in a private development stage company. In the grey market I am on a triple in 6 months. Back in the spring valuations on some stocks were plain silly. This one was going for about 7 cents per barrel of oil in the ground. Teck-Cominco just bought into a development stage project for $1.20 per barrel.
I follow this area very closely and the best value among listed stocks might be OPTI Canada (OPC on Toronto, or OPCDF.PK). They are teamed up with Nexen, a well-run company in itself, and are in the development stage. The present stock price makes for good value in an NPV calculation assuming $40 oil, let alone a more realistic $60+ when the asset is actually producing. It was chopped down in the recent sell-off of energy shares to make it even more attractive than it already was.
David
November 3rd, 2005 12:02
This thread is generally about GT, but does have “other techniques†in its jurisdiction and GT seems setteld, so I’ll offer this subthread: What kinds of questions should one answer for oneself before making investement choices?
Here are my offerings; maybe “you†can share some of yours:
What is the strength of the market?
Should I be in the market right now? (cf David’s ideas above)
Am I capable of meaningfully evaluating the credibility of sources?
Am I a credible source?
What is my position on the efficient markets hypothesis?
The EMH has various versions from weak to strong, along the lines of: “One cannot consistently make windfall profits in stocks based on information.†For myself, I tend toward the strong version and I’m very frustrated by that. I end up basing decisions for trades on things like a large drop in price; I just bought DELL for example.
Re: credibility, I could not evaluate GT based on its website. I don’t think anyone can. This thread was helpful to me because it had answers as opposed to just questions. I have more questions than answers, but I know risk is much higher the greater that imbalance. I hope this helps some of the folks who asked quesions above. if you can learn enough to be capable of providing answers of any kind, you can potentially provide answers of the profitable kind. i wish I was able to answer my own question about whether to get out of MACR last year; it went up 50% after I got out with a 70% gain. That gain was no different than winning at slots , unless you give me credit for my impression of MACR software.
PS: Thanks for the tip David; I may jump on it. I saw some interesting things about innovative oil extraction methods in Forbes recently. i tend to think energy is a good focus, and you are an example where picking a well-justified focus and backing it up with careful investigative effort can put one in a position to make good choices.
November 3rd, 2005 12:32
Shawn:
If you are interested in buying into the oil sands area, please send me an e-mail at dcweb@shaw.ca. I have set up this address temporarily. I will send you two key reports on the area - they will be of great assistance to you.
David
November 3rd, 2005 12:33
my advice boys is to stick to listed stuff. PK is pump and dump… TRY UTS-T it’s the real play on the tar sands called the Fort Hills project… Teck and Petro Can plucked in $1.35BB CDN to develop the property… stocks trades 2MM shares plus a dau and no funny biz of fakes trades like in Pink sheets.
INVEST IN WHAT YOU KNOW, NOT IN WHAT YOU READ!
My 2 cents
November 3rd, 2005 12:58
Hi Cry Wolf:
Hmm..How do you know about UTS? Presumably by what you read. Better not invest then.
UTS may have a very good project with excellent partners, but the question is the value of the shares. A lot of opinion is that they are very overvalued at present. My suggestion was OPTI - it is listed on Toronto as OPC or OPC.TO. It does have a PK listing but the price is determined by Toronto activity. OPC trades about $13 Million per day and that is quite comparable to UTS, so I don’t see the manipulation issue.
One more advantage of buying into one of the Oil Sands projects is that your investment is essentially in Canadian dollars and there is a good chance of appreciation against the US $. It doesn’t matter if you buy on Toronto or a US exchange - the advantage is still there.
David
November 3rd, 2005 13:24
Well TS came to me at 1.90 from the personal money manager to thefounder of pengrowth… they seem to know their stuff in Calgary. I stuffed it in my locked-in RSP and I donèt plan on touching it trading or adding to it…
I was a broker for 15 years and an investor by the age of 11 and I learnt quite early that 1)it’s better to be OVER-valued on a recognized exchange than UNDER-VALUED on a merky one…
2) you can get leverage and equity in an account on a recognized account while you will not on a merky one
3) I have yet to meet anyone that can say the guy that gave them a tip about a stock on a pink sheet is a real person, that they are neighbors for 20 years and that nobody got hurt…
IS today the day? huuuuuuuuuuummmmmmmmmm.
In good fun
DCW
November 3rd, 2005 14:01
Both David and DidCryWolf are advocates of knowledge, it seems. There may be disagreement on some other issues, but not on that. I think we three all agree that a tip has marginal status on this criterion. I would add that a tip, being a potential decision, has a different character for its sender and receiver. So, David offers a tip and I say thank you. if he trades the stock, it’s not based on a tip, bat rather what he knows. If i trade it, it’s based on a tip and is little different from a dice roll in Vegas, unless i am confident of David’s credibility. if i read the report and triangulate with other information (preferably from neighbors, if I understand DidCryWolf’s advice), I might make a better decision. It’s the same stock, speculative for me, but perhaps not for David. See?
November 7th, 2005 17:00
Has anyone had any experiences with AnotherWinningTrade.com
Thanks,
Larry M.
November 11th, 2005 15:46
Hello all,
I’ve recently begun taking steps into the investing/speculating world. My first two books were Bill O’Neill’s “How to Make Money in Stocks†and “Reminisces of a Stock Operator†by Lefevre, so you can get an idea of the investing method to which I have first been introduced. I signed up for an account at Marketwatch.com and with it came a free trial subscription to IBD, which I was ready to hop on anyway after reading O’Neill’s book.
I saw in IBD the ad for GT and have signed up for the free subscription. I haven’t yet begun to by any stocks and probably don’t plan to anytime soon, just track what he picks and compare them to charts and some research to determine if they’re stocks IBD and CANSLIM would also recommend buying and if not, why.
My question is this, as I see it referenced all over the place and still haven’t been able to quite nail it down on my own: How does one determine the buy, or “pivotâ€, point of a stock? When determining this, do you look at a blend of daily, weekly, and/or monthly chart depictions? I’ve noticed that some stocks forming base patterns in a weekly chart view don’t look quite as attractive in the monthly and vice versa.
November 11th, 2005 16:03
Julian:
Look at this article, and also make use of the whole Learning Center.
David
November 15th, 2005 14:08
I just received a letter from a lawyer representing Gorilla Trades. In the letter it was stated that I am “using the forgoing trademarks on [my] website to advertise and promote [my] own service, namely, providing informational literature to the public with regards to blogging, computers, google, the internet, investing, politics, [etc, etc.].†(It appears they made this list from the categories on my blog). From now on please reference GorillaPicks only generally and not with a specific ticker symbol. Thanks.
As you can read at the top, I have also put in a disclaimer stating that my freedom of speech rights allow me to state my comments regarding GorillaTrades. Supposedly, the use of “the trademarks ‘GORILLATRADES’ and ‘GORILLATRADES.COM’ in metatags and buried code on [my] website is an infringement of [Gorilla Trades’] trademark rights because it is likely to lead to initial interest confusion in the trade and among the public who are familiar with the marks and who associate the same exclusively with GT.†I checked my metatags and have no mention of GorillaTrades in them. The only reference to GorillaTrades is within the webpage itself; I am not burying code in my website. I believe that they are mad that a search for Gorilla Trades on Google leads to my site as the 7th search result (on 11/15/2005).
The lawyer stated that “Brookfield Communications Inc. v. West Coast Entertainment Corp.†sets a precedent for their immediate demand for me to cease and desist any further use of the GorillaTrades’ marks.
I am sending the lawyer a letter saying that I have removed the offending list of stock picks. What else would you recommend? Thank you.
November 16th, 2005 12:05
Scott,
the fact that the gorilla had his lawyer sent a letter is a proof that all is not well with those guys… If you can’t even discuss a service then maybe time to move on to better and more open minded timing services…
Anyways the info becomes stale after a few days so there is no reason why you can’t do forensics on old trades…
P.
November 26th, 2005 10:29
For those of you that are skeptical about Gorilla Trades, I would say the results speak for themselves. While the gorilla and the bananas are cute and fun, the format of the service and the performace is what gets my attention. I have been using the site for about a month. The 3 stocks I have purchased from their list are up almost 9% in that period. Granted, the market is up nicely too, GT picks has helped me to ride the wave. What is great about Gorilla Trades, is that they pick stocks to watch, allow them to trigger, and then require them to confirm that trigger with price and volume. If you purchase that stock, you know the entry point, the stop loss, and a 2 suggested exit points. Then you just monitor where the stock is based on that criteria, and react accordingly. They give you an Excel spreadsheet that shows the triger and confirmation points, stop loss, and exit points. It is all laid out very clearly, which allows you to act on good current information. I have looked at or used over 100 sites, and the Gorilla is certainly on eof the best.
November 26th, 2005 10:56
Bert:
“One swallow does not a summer makeâ€
With all respect, come back in a year and tell us your results. What you have so far means absolutely nothing. Since mid-October the S$P 500 has moved from 1175 to 1268, that is an increase of 7.9%. The NASDAQ