A comment on the Iraq troop surge
How to think about conditions in Iraq, General Petraeus’ testimony before Congress, and what we need to do next - Sep 13, 2007 (comment by William C. Martel, Assoc. Professor of International Security Studies)
The Iraq war is the most critical foreign policy issue facing the American people. For moral, political, and strategic reasons, we cannot afford to suddenly, prematurely withdraw U.S. forces without plunging Iraq into a genocidal sectarian war for which we would be responsible.
For the first time, there are tangible signs of progress.
First, violence is down across Iraq, as virtually all studies show. In General Petraeus’ testimony yesterday, his chart “Iraq Violence Trends” shows less violence in Baghdad and several provinces. The number of “High Profile Attacks” is down. Overall, the number of daily attacks against US/coalition forces and Iraqi civilians declined between August 2006 and now.
Here at home, violence in Iraq is the primary measure used by policymakers and citizens to judge conditions in Iraq. With the US troop surge, there are signs — tentative, but nonetheless promising — that something positive might be happening in Iraq.
Second, when we compare General Petraeus’ briefing to Congress with other studies on Iraq, the differences are not significant. Despite differences — reflecting disagreements about data or interpretation — the general consensus is that violence in Iraq is down but still too high, the surge in US troops has helped, while political progress by the Iraqi government remains disappointing.
Third, signs of progress in Iraq give us an opportunity to end political warfare at home. While progress is less than what everyone wants, it provides the basis for a consensus among warring US political factions. For the good of the country, Democrats and Republicans must forge a national consensus on Iraq.
Morally, we cannot leave Iraq without being responsible for a sectarian bloodbath. Politically, we cannot abandon a state to which we committed ourselves. Strategically, we cannot afford chaos in the Middle East, which produces 20 percent of the oil we use every day.
Where do we go from here? With signs of progress, the right thing is to give Iraqis a “decent interval” for reconciliation. We must end America’s national spasm of partisan politics and do the right thing for Iraq.
